Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (2023)

As October drew to a close, freezing progressed rapidly in the Laptev Sea. In the Antarctic, where spring is slowly unfolding, overall ice extent is low, with patterns suggesting a strong persistent low atmospheric pressure in the Amundsen Sea.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1a. Arctic sea ice extent for October 2022 was 6.61 million square kilometers (2.55 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Figure 1b. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of November 2, 2022, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2022 is shown in blue, 2021 in green, 2020 in orange, 2019 in brown, 2018 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

(Video) Arctic Sea Ice Minimum 2022

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

The October 2022 average Arctic sea ice extent was 6.61 million square kilometers (2.55 million square miles). This is the eighth lowest in the satellite record (Figure 1a). Extent was1.74 million square kilometers (672,000 square miles)below the 1981 to 2010 average of 8.35 million square kilometers (3.22 million square miles) and1.28 million square kilometers (494,000 square miles) above the record minimum set in 2020 of 5.33 million square kilometers (2.06 million square miles).

Ice extent increased at abelow averagerate at the beginning of the month, and open water persisted for some time in the Laptev Sea, whereas the East Siberian Sea was among the first regions to freeze up. In the last ten days of the month, ice extent rapidly increased (Figure 1b) as the Laptev Sea iced over. The delayed freeze up in the Laptev Sea could be partly a result of ocean heating from the extended period of open water this past spring and summer. However, slow freeze up in this region in recent years is also consistent with observations of eddies within the Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current that maintain a generally upward ocean heat flux, bringing warm Atlantic water along the eastern Arctic continental slope. The Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current is a shallow, 200- to 400-meter-deep (660 to 1,300 feet) eastward-flowing current that follows the edge of the continental shelf and carries warm water at 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (36 to 37 degrees Fahrenheit) in shallow depths around the Arctic Ocean. The configuration of the continental shelf in the Russian Arctic brings this water very near the coastal Laptev Sea.

At the end of the month, extent remained below average in the Chukchi Sea on the Pacific side of the Arctic, and also in the Barents and Kara Seas on the Atlantic side.

Conditions in context

Figure 2a. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for October 2022. Yellows and reds indicate higher than average temperatures; blues and purples indicate lower than average temperatures.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
High-resolution image

Figure 2b. This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in millibars for October 2022. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure; blues and purples indicate low pressure.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
High-resolution image

(Video) Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis Video

Airtemperatures during October at the 925 millibar level (approximately 2,500 feet above the surface)were near to above average over most of the Arctic Ocean (Figure 2a). The largest departures from average for this time of year were over the Kara Sea, where air temperatures averaged for October remained above freezing.

The average atmospheric circulation pattern was dominated by below average sea level pressure over nearly the entire Arctic (Figure 2b). Pressures were as much as 10 to 12 millibars below average over the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas and stretching across the pole. This pattern is reflected in the persistence of positive values of the Arctic Oscillation Index for most of the month. When the Arctic Oscillation is in its positive mode, pressures are below average over the Arctic, but above average over the Northern Hemisphere mid latitudes.

October 2022 compared to previous years

Figure 3. Monthly October ice extent for 1979 to 2022 shows a decline of 9.6 percent per decade.

(Video) When will Arctic sea ice disappear?

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

The downward linear trend in October sea ice extent over the 45-year satellite record is80,400 square kilometers (31,000 square miles) per year, or9.6 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979 October has lost 3.46 million square kilometers (1.34 million square miles). This equivalent to about twice the size of the state of Alaska.

Arctic sea ice loss may make El Niños more common

Figure 4. These plots show histograms of El Niño indices associated with Arctic sea ice loss experiments in climate model runs. The left histogram (a) shows the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Pacific that is defined as the average SST over the Niño 3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W) minus the Maritime Continent region (5S-5N, 110E-160E). The histogram on the right (b) shows the meridional SST gradient in the eastern equatorial Pacific that is defined as the average SST over 5N-10N, 160W-100W minus 2.5S-2.5N, 160W-100W. The vertical bars denote 20-year periods of constant Arctic sea ice in experiments using the US National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM). Gray is the historical period (1980 to 1999); blue is the future period of moderate ice loss (2020 to 2039); and red is the future period of seasonally ice-free conditions (2080 to 2099). Each bin represents 0.5 standard deviation of the corresponding SST anomalies or gradients. Black dashed lines represent 1.5 (strong El Niño) and 2 (extremely strong El Niño) standard deviations.

Credit: Jiping Liu et al. 2022, adapted by NSIDC
High-resolution image

El Niño is an important departure in ocean temperatures along the equator,linked to weakened trade winds. During an El Niño, the cold upwelled waters along the coast of the Americas and much of the eastern parts of the tropical Pacific are replaced by warmer water. This can have global impacts on weather, ecosystems, and economies around the world by shifting the Pacific jet stream southwards. In North America, this usually results in drier and warmer conditions than usual in the northern areas, and wetter conditions in the south. While episodes of El Niño typically occur every two to seven years and can last several months to more than a year, climate model simulations by colleagues at the University of Albany suggest that the frequency of El Niño events could increase by 35 percent by the end of this century if the Arctic Ocean loses its summer ice cover.

This link was found to result from increased heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere in the absence of sea ice, intensifying low-pressure systems in the Bering Sea (in the area of the Aleutian Low). Lower sea level pressure increases wind speeds that may oppose trade winds, bringing warm western Pacific water towards the east. Another possible mechanism is that as the Arctic Ocean warms from losing its sea ice cover, ocean currents weaken from the south that bring warm water from the eastern Pacific toward the Arctic. Analysis with other climate models is necessary to test the robustness of these connections.

The Antarctic

Figure 5. The graph above shows Antarctic sea ice extent as of November 2, 2022, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record high year. 2022 is shown in blue, 2021 in green, 2020 in orange, 2019 in brown, 2018 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

(Video) The Importance of Arctic Sea Ice

The seasonal Southern Ocean sea ice maximum extent was reached on September 16, at 18.19 million square kilometers (7.02 million square miles). This was the fourth lowest sea ice maximum in the satellite record, behind 1986, 2002, and 2017. Low sea ice extent has continued to persist, and the springtime decline in austral ice extent has proceeded at an above average pace. At month’s end, Antarctic sea ice was nearing record-low daily ice extents for the date.

Extent is far below average in the Bellingshausen Sea, and far above average in the Amundsen and eastern Ross Seas, a pattern indicative of a strong Amundsen Sea Low. Sea level pressures in the region have been 8 to 12 millibars below average. However, sea ice extent is also low along the Wilkes Land coast, where air temperatures have been 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (2 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.

Further reading

Aksenov, Y., V. V. Ivanov, A. G. Nurser, S. Bacon, I. V. Polyakov, A. C. Coward, A. C. Naveira‐Garabato, and A. Beszczynska-Moeller. 2011. The Arctic circumpolar boundary current. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. doi:10.1029/2010JC006637.

Liu, J., M. Song, Z. Zhu,et al.2022. Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events.Nature Communications. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32705-2.

Pnyushkov, A., I. V. Polyakov, L. Padman, and A. T. Nguyen. 2018. Structure and dynamics of mesoscale eddies over the Laptev Sea continental slope in the Arctic Ocean. Ocean Science. doi:10.5194/os-14-1329-2018.

FAQs

How much ice is left in the Arctic 2022? ›

Data source: EUMETSAT OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v2. 1. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF/EUMETSAT. The monthly average Arctic sea ice extent in January 2022 reached 14.0 million km2, 0.1 million km2 (or 1%) below the 1991-2020 average for January.

How does Arctic sea ice affect climate change? ›

Changes in the amount of sea ice can disrupt normal ocean circulation, thereby leading to changes in global climate. Even a small increase in temperature can lead to greater warming over time, making the polar regions the most sensitive areas to climate change on Earth.

What is causing Arctic sea ice loss? ›

Polar ice caps are melting as global warming causes climate change. We lose Arctic sea ice at a rate of almost 13% per decade, and over the past 30 years, the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has declined by a stunning 95%.

What is happening to sea ice? ›

Rapid glacial melt in Antarctica and Greenland also influences ocean currents, as massive amounts of very cold glacial-melt water entering warmer ocean waters is slowing ocean currents. And as ice on land melts, sea levels will continue to rise.

Can the Arctic ice Be Saved? ›

Rapidly slashing the world's methane emissions could help save our Arctic summer sea ice, slow climate change and protect countless animals that make sea ice home. The findings come in a powerful new study by EDF researchers Tianyi Sun, Ilissa Ocko, and Steven Hamburg.

How long until all the ice is melted? ›

There are more than five million cubic miles of ice on Earth, and some scientists say it would take more than 5,000 years to melt it all. If we continue adding carbon to the atmosphere, we'll very likely create an ice-free planet, with an average temperature of perhaps 80 degrees Fahrenheit instead of the current 58.

How can we stop the Arctic ice from melting? ›

– Electric Power
  1. reduce the consumption of natural resources,
  2. reduce the emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere, and.
  3. preserve the purity of water and forests.

What will happen if Arctic ice melts? ›

For example, if the Greenland ice sheet were to completely melt and the meltwater were to completely flow into the ocean, then global sea level would rise by about seven meters (23 feet) and Earth would rotate more slowly, with the length of the day becoming longer than it is today, by about 2 milliseconds.

Will the Arctic become ice free? ›

Even if we reduce emissions substantially, keeping global warming levels below 2°C, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless disappear occasionally in summers before 2050.” The loss of sea ice in the summer will have a profound impact on our environment – influencing ocean circulation and hastening the warming of the Arctic.

Is the Arctic ice growing or shrinking? ›

Key Takeaway: Summer Arctic sea ice extent is shrinking by 12.6% per decade as a result of global warming. Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extent (the area in which satellite sensors show individual pixels to be at least 15% covered in ice) each September.

What is the main threat to the Arctic ocean? ›

Oil and gas exploration, as well as mining, are substantial threats to the Arctic climate, people and wildlife. The sea ice has a big impact on maintaining sea temperature and its disappearance also has an impact on animals like polar bears, seals, whales and some fish.

What are 5 effects of melting sea ice? ›

The main consequences of deglaciation are:
  • Sea level rise.
  • Impact on the climate.
  • Disappearance of species.
  • Less fresh water.
  • Stop climate change.
  • Slow down their erosion.
  • Combine artificial icebergs.
  • Increase their thickness.

Why is sea ice increasing? ›

The mighty Southern Ocean Circumpolar Current prevents warmer ocean water from reaching the Antarctic sea ice zone, helping to isolate the continent. The winds within that ice zone keep the water extremely cold, enabling the sea ice cover to grow in recent years even as global temperatures have risen markedly.

Is Arctic ice still melting? ›

The overall downward trend in minimum Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2022 has been 12.6% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average — some 30,300 square miles (78,500 sq. kms.)

How long will it be before the Arctic is ice free? ›

The Arctic could see ice-free summers by 2035, reshaping global shipping routes. Arctic sea lanes might be ice-free in the summertime by 2035, according to scientists.

How many years ago can the ice cores go back? ›

Most ice core records come from Antarctica and Greenland, and the longest ice cores extend to 3km in depth. The oldest continuous ice core records to date extend 123,000 years in Greenland and 800,000 years in Antarctica.

Is it too late to save the Arctic? ›

Probably not. This year scientists discovered that a sixth of the entire ice cap melted away in the space of a single summer, between 2004 and 2005. We have already pushed atmospheric carbon dioxide to levels which are unprecedented in 20m years, so in one sense temperatures are only catching up.

How high would oceans rise if all ice melted? ›

There is still some uncertainty about the full volume of glaciers and ice caps on Earth, but if all of them were to melt, global sea level would rise approximately 70 meters (approximately 230 feet), flooding every coastal city on the planet.

What will the Earth look like if all the ice melts? ›

If all the ice covering Antarctica , Greenland, and in mountain glaciers around the world were to melt, sea level would rise about 70 meters (230 feet). The ocean would cover all the coastal cities. And land area would shrink significantly. But many cities, such as Denver, would survive.

Will Earth melt a few years from now? ›

Four billion years from now, the increase in Earth's surface temperature will cause a runaway greenhouse effect, creating conditions more extreme than present-day Venus and heating Earth's surface enough to melt it. By that point, all life on Earth will be extinct.

Why is it important to protect the Arctic ice? ›

Animals dependent on sea ice habitats—like walruses, polar bears, and certain species of Arctic seals—will face great challenges as sea ice continues to decrease in this region, as will the Indigenous peoples who depend on these animals and the sea ice to support the subsistence way of life.

How much will the sea level rise in 2050? ›

The future is not (entirely) set in stone

Those findings are in line with a major report earlier this year from the NOAA, which found that sea levels could rise along U.S. coastlines by roughly a foot between now and 2050 — roughly as much change over the next three decades as over the past century.

What keeps ice frozen the longest? ›

The reflective surface of aluminum foil is scientifically proven to keep ice from melting longer than other materials. Before you put the ice for the party in the cooler or bucket, place one layer of aluminum foil in the container. Wrap the ice bucket in a towel.

Will there be another Ice Age? ›

By itself, this will delay the next Ice Age by at least 50,000 years. Add in the effect of man-made global warming, and the delay is increased to 100,000 years. Read more: Is global warming preventing the next ice age?

Why is the Arctic important to humans? ›

Not just because it's home to the iconic polar bear, and four million people, but also because it helps keep our world's climate in balance. Arctic sea ice acts as a huge white reflector at the top of the planet, bouncing some of the sun's rays back into space, helping keep the Earth at an even temperature.

How does melting ice affect humans? ›

The melting of this Arctic sea ice will most likely lead to further climate change. This is a problem because climate change affects almost everything important to humans, like plants, animals, the weather, and commerce. All these things, in turn, affect our food supplies.

What year will the Arctic melt? ›

And without those two big things that it does, it's going to make our climate warmer. As a whole, in general, the climate models all agree that the Arctic will become ice-free by 2050. So that's, you know, 30 years.

When was the earth last ice free? ›

And they found that the plants were very old indeed, and had probably last grown in these spots some 115,000 years ago. That's the last time the areas were actually not covered by ice, the scientists believe.

When was the last ice age? ›

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred about 20,000 years ago, during the last phase of the Pleistocene epoch. At that time, global sea level was more than 400 feet lower than it is today, and glaciers covered approximately: 8% of Earth's surface.

Are we in Ice Age? ›

At least five major ice ages have occurred throughout Earth's history: the earliest was over 2 billion years ago, and the most recent one began approximately 3 million years ago and continues today (yes, we live in an ice age!). Currently, we are in a warm interglacial that began about 11,000 years ago.

Where is ice increasing in the world? ›

The Arctic regularly reaches ever smaller extents of end-of-summer minimum extents of sea ice. This changing sea ice extent is cited by the IPCC as an indicator of a warming world. However, sea ice extent is growing in Antarctica [1]. In fact, it's recently broken a record for maximum extent.

Is the ice in the Arctic getting thicker? ›

Old ice is thicker, and over the past few decades Arctic sea ice has become thinner. The study found that Arctic sea ice extent is now half what it was in the 1980s.

Can we rebuild glaciers? ›

They used a sophisticated computer model to simulate the potential recovery of the ice shelf. "Even if Earth's climate stopped warming, it would be difficult to rebuild this ice shelf once it has fallen apart," says Henning Åkesson, who led the study at Stockholm University.

Will glaciers come back? ›

Ice shelves are floating extensions of glaciers. A new study, published in Nature Communications, found that if Greenland's second-largest ice shelf breaks up, it may not recover unless Earth's future climate cools considerably.

How do people benefit from glaciers? ›

The benefits detailed in the paper include freshwater for drinking, glacial runoff that supports hydropower, carbon sequestration, water temperature regulation and water purification. As climate change works on glacial ecosystems, humans may see a temporary uptick in the useful aspects of glaciers, albeit briefly.

How are we destroying the Arctic? ›

Global warming is causing permafrost in the Arctic to thaw and sea ice to melt. As a result, coasts are less protected and are being eroded, while carbon stored in the soil and carbon dioxide are being released into the ocean and atmosphere.

What is killing the Arctic? ›

The thinning of Arctic ice is no longer just the result of climate change, but one of its accelerants. Open water in the north absorbs more of the sun's heat, making the planet warmer, causing more ice to melt, exposing more water, and so on every year.

How are humans destroying the Arctic? ›

Global warming and the extracting of oil and gas from the tundra are the biggest threats. Human settlement and population are beginning to have an increasingly worrying effect on the biome. Oil, gas and valuable resources such as diamond and gold, have recently been discovered in arctic tundra regions.

Who benefits from ice melting? ›

As glaciers melt, they add nutrients to the ocean and fertilize the local ecosystem. In Greenland and Antarctica, the ocean is short on iron, so melting glaciers make up for the lack of iron. Photosynthesizing phytoplankton are the base of the food web in the ocean and require lots of light and nutrients to grow.

How does ice melting affect the economy? ›

permafrost and melting sea ice could cause up to $130 trillion worth of extra economic losses globally under current business-as-usual trajectory over the next three centuries. If global warming is limited to 1.5°C, the additional cost will be reduced to under $10 trillion.

Why is sea ice important to the world? ›

Sea ice plays an important role maintaining the Earth's energy balance while helping keep polar regions cool due to its ability to reflect more sunlight back to space. Sea ice also keeps air cool by forming an insulating barrier between the cold air above it and the warmer water below it.

Is sea ice important to global climate? ›

It is formed in high latitude regions where there is little or no sunlight in the winter and so atmospheric conditions are cold enough for the ocean to freeze. Sea ice is an important component of the climate system because it regulates the transfer of heat and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean.

Is the South Pole getting colder? ›

Even though the North Pole and South Pole are “polar opposites,” they both get the same amount of sunlight. But the South Pole is a lot colder than the North Pole.
...
Really cold, or really, really cold?
Time of yearAverage (mean) temperature
North PoleSouth Pole
Summer32° F (0° C)−18° F (−28.2° C)
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8 Sept 2022

Is the Arctic sea ice growing? ›

Summer ice extent in and around the Arctic Ocean has declined significantly since satellites began measuring it consistently in 1978. The past 16 years (2007 to 2022) have been the lowest 16 minimum extents, with 2022 tying 2017 and 2018 for 10th-lowest in 44 years of observations.

How much Arctic ice is left? ›

Since satellite-based measurements began in the late 1970s, Arctic sea ice extent has decreased in all months and virtually all regions. The September 2022 ice extent was 4.87 million square kilometers (1.88 million square miles), tied with 2010 for eleventh lowest in the satellite record.

How is climate change affecting sea ice? ›

More solar energy is absorbed at the surface and ocean temperatures rise. This begins a cycle of warming and melting. Warmer water temperatures delay ice growth in the fall and winter, and the ice melts faster the following spring, exposing dark ocean waters for a longer period the following summer.

How much ice is left in the Arctic? ›

The Arctic ice pack reaches its maximum extent in March, and its minimum extent in September. In September 2022, the area that was at least 15 percent ice covered was 4.87 million square kilometers (1.88 million square miles), tying with 2010 for eleventh lowest in the satellite record.

How much ice is in the Arctic right now? ›

The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. The October 2022 average Arctic sea ice extent was 6.61 million square kilometers (2.55 million square miles). This is the eighth lowest in the satellite record (Figure 1a).

What will the Arctic be like in 2050? ›

Even if we reduce emissions substantially, keeping global warming levels below 2°C, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless disappear occasionally in summers before 2050.” The loss of sea ice in the summer will have a profound impact on our environment – influencing ocean circulation and hastening the warming of the Arctic.

Is the Antarctic ice increasing? ›

The extent of Antarctic sea ice varies greatly from year to year, but 40 years of satellite records show a long-term trend. Although some Antarctic regions have experienced reductions in sea ice extent, the overall trend since 1979 shows increased ice.

How long will the Arctic ice last? ›

A new Nature Climate Change study predicts that summer sea ice floating on the surface of the Arctic Ocean could disappear entirely by 2035. Until relatively recently, scientists didn't think we would reach this point until 2050 at the earliest.

Will all the ice melt? ›

However, all the ice is not going to melt. The Antarctic ice cap, where most of the ice exists, has survived much warmer times. The concern is that portions of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice caps may disappear.

Where is 90% of ice? ›

More than six times as large as Greenland, Antarctica is the southernmost continent—and the coldest, driest, and windiest place on Earth. The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains 30 million cubic kilometers (7.2 million cubic miles) of ice: 70% of Earth's freshwater and 90% of its ice.

How much ice is left in the world? ›

Summary
Ice massTotal ice volume% Global land surface
WAIS & APIS4.5 m SLE
Greenland7.36 m SLE1.2%
Global glaciers and ice caps*0.43 m SLE (113,915 to 191,879 Gt)0.5%
Total12.5%
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2 Aug 2022

What is the biggest threat to the Arctic? ›

The retreat of seasonal sea ice has made hunting and travel more difficult and dangerous for Arctic peoples. Loss of seasonal sea ice also removes vital habitat for ice-dependent species such as polar bears, walruses and ice seals.

Will there be another Arctic blast 2022? ›

Cooler temperatures began to ooze into northeast New Mexico late on February 1st, but on February 2nd, a much colder arctic airmass quickly pushed southward through the eastern plains and westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain.
...
February 2022 Arctic Blast.
AlbuquerqueClovis
Santa FeTucumcari
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1 Feb 2022

What is the chance of an ice free Arctic Ocean by 2030? ›

Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s – much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models.

What will Antarctica look like without ice? ›

Most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is grounded below sea level - in places, it's over 1.5 miles below sea level. So if the ice was to melt, much of this side of the continent would be below sea level and would be a patchwork of islands.

Videos

1. NASA scientist: Arctic sea ice could disappear in 20 years
(The Real News Network)
2. Scientist's Terrifying New Discovery Under Antarctica's Ice
(Future Byte)
3. Arctic sea ice declines since 1979 | Science News
(Science News)
4. SPECIAL REPORT: ‘On thin ice: Rising tensions in the Arctic’
(Sky News Australia)
5. Extinction of Older Arctic Sea Ice - Abrupt Climate Change
(Climate Damage)
6. Scientists measure how quickly crucial Antarctica glacier is melting
(PBS NewsHour)
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